This may seem like a long, pointless story, but I promise I’ll tie it into investing.
When I was in high school, my friend Wayne had an old junky Volkswagen van. Keeping it running was a major activity for us. One day it wouldn’t start, and we figured out the starter motor had gone bad. We pulled the starter and took it to the local auto parts store and got a rebuilt replacement. We installed that one, and the van still wouldn’t start. So we checked everything again, and decided it still had to be the starter motor. It was a rebuilt, so maybe we got a bad one. So we returned that for another rebuilt starter motor. We installed this one (now the third one that had been in the van that day) and it still wouldn’t start. We were at our wits end. Voltage was getting to the motor, the motor turned, the plugs were fine. It had to be the starter motor, yet we were on starter number three. We decided it had to be the starter motor. We were too embarrassed to go back to the same store, so we went to another outlet of the same chain to get our third rebuilt starter. We installed that one, and the van fired right up. Starter motor number four was the right answer, despite the evidence.
This was a life lesson to me. When you are right, you are right. Sometimes it’s hard to stick to your guns with some circumstances are making you look very wrong. But if you check all the facts, eliminate the other possibilities, you stick with your decision. In early 2008 the stock market was way down from where it had been in late 2007 and there were some compelling bargains. By the end of 2008, you might have felt like we did on starter motor number three. The market continued down, and it was looking pretty dicey. However, if it’s good, profitable company, you do the equivalent of exchanging for another starter motor (i.e. hold, or even buy more stock). An investor who stood by their decision, was well rewarded within a couple of years. Many stocks bought early 2008 have doubled since then.
If you buy a compelling value, even if it heads lower, don’t throw up your hands. Remember the fourth starter motor.