I remember reading a story about a TV meteorologist who had what he called “his assistant in charge of looking out the window”. That way he wouldn’t be predicting sunshine when it was raining outside. It’s a good concept, taking a look yourself instead of just believing the forecasts.
With investing, the way to do this is to talk to people. McDonald’s may say everything is great, but what do the employees say? What about the customers? Are they buying the new lattes every day, or was it a one time novelty? How about the Apple store? Are people still demanding iPhones like they were? Stop at the local housing development. Ask them how sales are going. What kind of incentives are they having to offer to move their inventory?
You have to be careful, as each community, each store, will be different. But if you’re doing your own investing, it’s an awfully good idea to look out the window first to make sure it’s not raining.